Contents
Market Recap
Trading gold via Exness remains a strategic choice for forex traders, particularly given the metalโs recent volatility and safe-haven demand. Gold prices have surged 15.20% YTD as of March 2025, reaching an all-time high of $3,057.31. Recent strength has been driven by geopolitical tensions, including tariff uncertainties and Federal Reserve commentary hinting at a 25-basis-point rate cut by year-end.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
As of April 1, 2025, gold trades at $3,122.69 in XAU/USD. Recent price action shows consolidation near key psychological resistance levels, with short-term volatility tied to US economic data releases.Trend:
The medium-term trend remains bullish, supported by central bank policy shifts and macroeconomic uncertainty. However, technical indicators hint at potential short-term corrections, as overbought conditions from the recent rally may trigger profit-taking.Key Levels:
| Support | Resistance | Long-Term Target |
|---|---|---|
| $3,000 | $3,150 | $3,181 (12-month forecast) |
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dips toward the $3,000โ$3,020 zone, where confluent Fibonacci retracement and volume support levels converge.
- Breakout Entry: Enter long positions on a confirmed break above $3,150 (previous swing high), targeting $3,181.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $2,980 to account for potential volatility-driven downside.
- Take Profit (TP):
- TP1: $3,050โ$3,100 (partial exit on consolidation)
- TP2: $3,150โ$3,181 (full exit on trend continuation)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Current level near 65 (neutral to slightly overbought). A drop below 60 signals waning momentum.
- Moving Averages:
- 50-day MA: $3,022.77 (trend support)
- 200-day MA: ~$2,820 (long-term trend confirmation)
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand, dovish Fed outlook, and technical bullish patterns (e.g., ascending triangles in lower timeframes).
- Volatility: Expect heightened moves during US employment data releases, such as the upcoming PCE index.
Final Advice
Strongly consider a partial long position at $3,020โ$3,030 with a trailing SL to lock in profits. Avoid overleveraging; prioritize risk-reward ratios of 1:3. If gold rejects $3,150, prepare for a pullback toward $3,000โ$3,050 as the next buying zone. Monitor the US dollar index (DXY) for inverse correlation; a weaker dollar typically bolsters XAU/USD.Pro Tip: Combine fundamental triggers (e.g., Fed commentary) with technical entries for optimal timing.
