Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have surged to all-time highs near $3,130/oz, driven by escalating global trade tensions, Fed rate-cut expectations, and robust ETF inflows. Trading gold in Exness offers tighter spreads and liquidity, making it ideal for capturing intraday volatility. Analysts like Goldman Sachs now project a $3,300/oz target by year-end, reflecting heightened bullish sentiment.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $3,107.75, hovering just below its April 2025 peak of $3,148.89.Trend
The dominant trend remains strongly bullish, with gold up 20.28% YTD. Recent price action reflects consolidation after breaching the $3,000 psychological barrier, supported by sustained safe-haven demand and central bank purchases.Key Levels
- Support Level 1: $3,062 (recent pullback low)
- Support Level 2: $2,994 (20-day EMA)
- Resistance Level 1: $3,130 (2025 intra-month high)
- Resistance Level 2: $3,148.89 (all-time high)
- Long-Term Target: $3,300 (Goldman Sachs year-end forecast)
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy dips to $3,062-$3,070, targeting a retest of $3,130 resistance.
- Breakout Entry: Enter long if price closes above $3,130 with volume confirmation, aiming for $3,148.89 and beyond.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place at $3,040 (below the 20-day EMA and recent support).
- Take Profit (TP):
- TP1: $3,130 (near-term target)
- TP2: $3,300 (Goldman Sachs projection for aggressive traders)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI (14): A reading above 70 could signal overbought conditions, but price action often leads indicators in bull trends. Use divergence as reversal confirmation.
- Moving Averages:
- Buy above 50-day SMA ($2,994)
- Confirm trend with 200-day SMA ($2,800) as dynamic support
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Escalating tariffs, weak US manufacturing data, and gold ETF inflows fuel demand.
- Volatility: Since gold exhibits higher intraday ranges than FX pairs, adjust position sizing to avoid overleverage.
Final Advice
- Entry Timing: Await a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., bullish engulfing) on H1/H4 charts for pullback entries. For breakout traders, watch for sustained momentum above $3,130.
- Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for a 1:2 ratio (e.g., $30 risk for $60 profit). Use smaller positions to avoid overexposure during consolidation phases.
- Macro Events: Monitor Friday’s NFP report – weaker data could accelerate the rally toward $3,300.
Gold’s current trajectory suggests further upside, but traders must remain disciplined to avoid FOMO-driven entry errors. Keep trades aligned with the bullish trend while respecting risk parameters.
