Market Recap
Gold trading remains a high-reward opportunity in April 2025, with geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty fueling volatility. For traders looking to capitalize on these trends, Exness offers competitive spreads and reliable execution across forex pairs like XAU/USD.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level
XAU/USD currently trades near $3,126 per ounce, testing crucial resistance levels after a sharp pre-market surge.
Trend
The bullish channel established in recent weeks continues to dominate price action, with moving averages confirming short-term upward momentum. However, the Gold Cycle Indicator approaches topping territory, signaling potential exhaustion in the near term.
Key Levels
- Support
- Primary: $3,075 (bullish trend line and RSI support)
- Secondary: $3,083 – $3,100 (intraday consolidation zones)
- Resistance
- Immediate: $3,125 (psychological barrier)
- Near-term: $3,150, $3,175
- Long-term: $3,215, $3,204 (10-week EMA envelope), $3,200
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Look for dips to $3,075 with RSI holding above its bullish trend line and price rebounding from the ascending channel’s lower boundary.
- Breakout Entry: A decisive close above $3,125 targeting $3,150+, validated by bullish momentum on the H2/H4 charts and moving average alignment.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,045 (critical support break level). For closer entries, SL just below recent swing lows (e.g., $3,100 if entering at $3,075).
- Take Profit (TP):
- First TP: $3,150 (45% of total position)
- Second TP: $3,175 (35%)
- Final TP: $3,215 (20%)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Current RSI (14) near 60-70 area; watch for divergence signals and trend line violations.
- Moving Averages: 50-period SMA ($3,100+) and 200-period EMA ($2,985+) as dynamic supports.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers:
- Safe-haven demand from U.S. tariff announcements and recession fears.
- Technical momentum: Ascending channel and bullish RSI trend.
- Long-term cycle dynamics suggesting final leg before April peak.
Volatility Considerations:
- Monitor U.S. NFP data and tariff updates for whipsaws.
- Prepare for potential “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reactions to policy announcements.
Final Advice
XAU/USD traders should remain vigilant to macroeconomic shifts this week. The $3,075-$3,125 zone represents a pivotal battleground β close above $3,125 validates the bullish case, while failure risks a retest of $3,045. Tight risk management is crucial given event-driven volatility.
