Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have shown mixed signals recently, closing in the red last week despite geopolitical tensions, but maintaining a strong uptrend since early 2024 with a 65% surge to around $3,300/oz. While seasonal patterns suggest March as a typical entry point, June remains critical due to upcoming macroeconomic data. For active traders, Exness provides competitive conditions for XAU/USD trading.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is trading near $3,300, consolidating after recent pullbacks.Trend:
Short-term downtrend or consolidation; long-term bullish trajectory intact.Key Levels:
- Immediate Support: $3,250–$3,280 (recent swing lows)
- Resistance: $3,350 (previous highs)
- Long-Term Target: $3,500+ if bullish momentum resumes.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dips to $3,280 with confirmation from RSI > 30 and bullish MA crossover (e.g., 50-period crossing above 200-period).
- Breakout Entry: Buy if price breaks above $3,350, targeting $3,400 initially. Avoid chasing without confirmation.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place 1.5–2% below entry (e.g., $3,240 for $3,280 entry). Tighter SL if entering a breakout.
- Take Profit (TP): Set TP at 2–3x risk-reward ratio. For example, exit 50% at $3,350 and let the rest ride toward $3,400.
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for divergence below 40 (oversold) for long opportunities. Avoid entering when RSI > 70.
- Moving Averages: Focus on 50-period MA crossing above 200-period MA as bullish confirmation.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand, inflation uncertainty (June 11 CPI report), and geopolitical risks.
- Volatility: Monitor ATR for breakouts; high ATR suggests trend acceleration. Use June 6 NFP data to gauge market reactions.
Final Advice
Gold’s $3,300 range offers tactical opportunities for both pullback entries and breakout plays. Prioritize stop-loss discipline and scale positions post-June 6/11 data releases. Short-term traders should target $3,350–$3,400, while longer-term traders can hold for $3,500 with trailing stops. Stay nimble—geopolitical news or Fed policies could shift momentum abruptly.