Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have shown significant bullish momentum recently, reaching the Exness trading platform with current levels near $3,300 per ounce. This represents a 65% rise since January 2024. Analysts suggest further upside potential, with a veteran strategist predicting up to 15% additional gains from current levels. Technical resistance at $3,365 and key economic data releases in June (June 6 unemployment, June 11 inflation) remain critical catalysts.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is currently trading at approximately $3,300, testing the psychologically significant $3,365 resistance level. Recent consolidation near this zone suggests weakening bullish momentum.
Trend:
The medium-term trend remains bullish, supported by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. However, short-term price action shows increased volatility as markets await Federal Reserve policy signals.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: $3,365 (double-top formation)
- Support: $3,290 (recent swing low confirmation)
- Pivot Point: $3,300 (current psychological benchmark)
Support:
$3,290 serves as immediate support – a break below this could trigger selling toward $3,250.
Resistance:
$3,365 acts as major resistance; sustained breakouts above this would signal continuation toward $3,500.
Long-Term Target:
A 15% rise from current levels would target $3,795, contingent on favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dip toward $3,290-3,300 with confirmation from bullish RSI divergence.
- Breakout Entry: Enter long positions above $3,365 with increased volume.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,280 (2% risk) for pullback entries; below $3,350 for breakout strategies.
- Take Profit (TP):
- First target: $3,365 (resistance test)
- Second target: $3,500 (resistance extension)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Overbought signals above 70 suggest potential retracement. Watch for divergence during pullbacks.
- Moving Averages: 50-period MA ($3,280) forms dynamic support; 200-period MA ($2,850) confirms long-term uptrend.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Inflation uncertainty, Fed policy shifts, and safe-haven demand.
- Volatility: Monitor June 11 U.S. inflation data – critical for directionality.
Final Advice
- Wait for Confirmation: Avoid impulsive entries ahead of June 6 unemployment data. Let price action settle post-release.
- Cautious Positioning: Consider partial profits at $3,365 to lock gains before Fed decision windows.
- Event-Driven Management: Tighten stop losses before June 11 inflation report; expect increased volatility thereafter.
Strategically, targeting $3,365 with tight stops offers high-reward potential given the bullish macro backdrop. However, remain prepared for profit-taking dips should markets reprice Fed rate cut expectations.
