Contents
Market Recap
Trading gold (XAU/USD) remains a lucrative option for FX traders, particularly during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. Exness emerges as a reliable platform for executing gold trades, offering competitive spreads and access to real-time market data.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is hovering near all-time highs at $3,107–$3,130, reflecting a 15%+ surge since early 2025. Recent bullish momentum stems from escalating U.S. trade tariffs, ETF inflows, and weak U.S. economic data.Trend:
The uptrend is dominant with a sharp rally since March, driven by safe-haven demand and inflation hedging. However, intraday consolidation signals potential profit-taking after the rapid ascent.Key Levels:
- Support: $3,000–$3,050 (previous resistance turned support, 50% retracement of recent rally)
- Resistance: $3,130–$3,162 (record highs, Trading Economics Q2 2025 Forecast)
- Long-Term Target: $3,300 (Goldman Sachs end-2025 forecast)
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dips toward $3,050–$3,000, targeting $3,130 (recent high). Validate with bullish RSI/MA crossovers.
- Breakout Entry: Buy above $3,162 (Trading Economics Q2 resistance), aiming for $3,300.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,000 (psychological support) or recent swing low.
- Take Profit (TP):
- TP1: $3,130 (near-term resistance)
- TP2: $3,300 (long-term target)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for overbought signals (RSI >70) to time exits.
- Moving Averages:
- MA50 ($2,871) acts as dynamic support in pullbacks.
- MA200 ($2,513) confirms bullish long-term momentum.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers:- Trade Tensions: U.S. auto tariffs and reciprocal measures intensify safe-haven demand.
- ETF Flows: Sustained inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
- Rate Cut Expectations: Weaker U.S. job data raises Fed dovish bets.
Volatility:
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) releases and geopolitical headlines could trigger sharp moves. Stay agile to reposition based on news flow.
Final Advice
Prioritize pullback entries at $3,050–$3,000 with tight SLs. Avoid chasing breakouts unless confirmed by volume spikes. Hedge directional bets with options if volatility escalates. Monitor $3,130 as a critical pivot point—close above this level may trigger algorithmic buying toward $3,300.Note: Always verify prices and economic calendars before trading.
