Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have shown resilience in recent sessions, with XAU/USD consolidating near record highs amid geopolitical tensions and central bank policy shifts. For traders seeking exposure, the volatility and trend momentum make now an optimal time to trade gold via platforms like Exness, which offers competitive spreads and reliable execution.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is trading at $3,107.75 as of April 1, 2025, with immediate resistance around $3,130 near its recent record high. The 14-day RSI stands at 43.08, signaling neutral momentum.Trend:
The broader trend remains bullish, supported by strong ETF inflows and central bank demand. However, short-term price action is consolidating between $2,624 and $2,715, suggesting a potential breakout or reversal.Key Levels:
- Support: $2,594-$2,603 (38.2% retracement of May rally), $2,565 (November low), and $2,532/$2,534 (50% retracement)
- Resistance: $2,671-$2,680 (61.8% retracement of December range), $2,715 (October trendline), and $2,744 (record HDC)
- Long-Term Target: $3,300 by year-end, with near-term targets at $3,163.93
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dips toward $2,594-$2,603 support, targeting a retest of $2,680 resistance.
- Breakout Entry: Wait for a sustained close above $2,715 to confirm a bullish trend resumption, targeting $2,744 and higher.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below critical support at $2,594-$2,603. For conservative positions, set SL at $2,565.
- Take Profit (TP): Primary target: $2,680-$2,715 (risk-reward ratio 1:1.5). Secondary target: $2,744 (1:2 ratio).
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: A move below 30 (oversold) or above 70 (overbought) could signal trend reversals. Current RSI at 43.08 indicates no extreme.
- Moving Averages:
- 50-day SMA: $2,962.56
- 200-day SMA: $2,751.67
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Strong ETF inflows, central bank accumulation, and trade war tariffs driving safe-haven demand.
- Volatility: Moderate volatility at 2.37% suggests manageable risk for strategic entries. Monitor U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for directional cues.
Final Advice
Adopt a wait-and-watch approach until XAU/USD breaks the $2,594-$2,715 range. For intraday traders, consider scalping around $2,680 resistance with tight SLs. Long-term investors should accumulate dips toward $2,594-$2,603, aligning with forecasts.Actionable Plan:
- Set price alerts for $2,594-$2,603 (pullback buy zone) and $2,715 (breakout confirmation).
- Avoid trades during high-impact news like NFP; prioritize post-data entries.
- Trail SL to breakeven once price reaches $2,680.
Key Risk:
A breakdown below $2,565 could trigger a deeper correction toward $2,532/$2,534. Always validate setups with candlestick patterns and volume confirmation.