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Contents
Market Recap
Gold has been a stellar performer recently, surging to record highs above $3,168 as geopolitical tensions and Fed rate-cut expectations intensified. If you’re considering trading XAU/USD, Exness offers competitive spreads and reliable execution for forex traders.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is currently trading around $3,107.75 after a minor pullback from its all-time peak.Trend:
The broader trend remains unequivocally bullish, with XAU/USD holding above critical moving averages and forming a bullish channel.Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $3,135 (previous swing high)
- Critical Support: $3,005 (bullish channel lower boundary)
- Long-Term Target: $3,255 (projected bullish target)
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dip to $3,005 with confirmation from bullish RSI divergence.
- Breakout Entry: Buy above $3,135 with momentum confirmation from hourly closes.
Risk Management
| Stop Loss (SL) | Place 50-75 pips below entry (e.g., $2,930) |
|---|---|
| Take Profit (TP) | Target 1:2 reward ratio (e.g., TP at $3,165 for entry at $3,107) |
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Bulls need to protect 40 on 4HR/1HR charts to maintain bullish momentum.
- Moving Averages: 21-period SMA ($3,026) acts as dynamic support – close below invalidates trend.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech later today could spur volatility. Weaker-than-expected jobs data may reinforce rate-cut bets and drive gold higher.
- Volatility: Expect increased volume during NFP release (10:30 AM ET). Use limit orders rather than market orders to execute precisely.
Final Advice
- Conservative Approach: Enter on pullback to $3,005 with SL below $2,945. TP at $3,165 (1:1.5 ratio).
- Aggressive Position: Breakout above $3,135 with SL at $3,090. TP at $3,255 (2:1 ratio).
- Post-Event Strategy: If NFP surprises either way, reassess after a 1-hour candle confirms trend direction.
