Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices remain in the spotlight as geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts dominate headlines. Trading gold in the current environment demands precision and foresight. For those seeking a reliable platform to capitalize on these opportunities, Exness offers robust tools and competitive spreads to execute XAU/USD trades effectively.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Spot gold is trading at $3,372.01, reflecting a recent 1.2% gain but following a sharp correction from the all-time high of $3,500.05.Trend:
The market shows consolidative behavior, with bullish momentum paused by profit-taking and dollar strength. A bearish correction from $3,500 to $3,211 occurred in early May due to easing trade tensions and USD recovery.Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $3,372 (current price) and $3,500 (record high)
- Support: $3,200 (psychological level) and $3,211 (recent low)
Long-Term Target:
A sustained breakout above $3,500 could target $3,600, while a breakdown below $3,200 may retrace toward $3,000.Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Look for a retest of $3,300-$3,320 (38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from $3,211 to $3,372). This zone aligns with the 50-period moving average.
- Breakout Entry: A close above $3,372 with increased volume could signal a resumption of the uptrend. Confirm with bullish RSI divergence above 60.
Risk Management
| Stop Loss (SL) | $3,250 (below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) |
|---|---|
| Take Profit (TP) | $3,400-$3,450 (near resistance zones) |
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: A reading below 50 may indicate oversold conditions, favoring long entries. Watch for divergence during pullbacks.
- Moving Averages: The 50-period MA ($3,320) and 200-period MA ($3,000) are critical for trend confirmation.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand from U.S.-China trade uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations remain in play. However, USD strength and overbought RSI readings (above 70) suggest caution. Volatility: Monitor Federal Reserve policy statements and geopolitical developments, as these often trigger sharp price swings.Final Advice
Entry Recommendation: Enter long positions on a pullback to $3,300-$3,320 with a stop loss at $3,250. Set partial take-profit at $3,400 and let the rest ride toward $3,500 if bullish momentum resumes. Cautionary Note: Avoid overleveraging. A break below $3,200 would invalidate the bullish thesis, triggering a deeper correction toward $3,000. Execution Tip: Use the 5-minute or 15-minute chart to time entries during high-impact economic events (e.g., U.S. Services PMI, Fed meeting minutes).