Market Recap
Gold prices have shown significant volatility in recent days, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank activity. The precious metal surged to $2,915 per ounce on March 4, 2025, nearing its all-time high of $2,950, as U.S. tariffs on major trading partners sparked a global flight to safety. Goldman Sachs forecasts an 8% rise to $3,100 by year-end, citing robust central bank demand and ETF inflows. For traders seeking to capitalize on this momentum, Exness offers a robust platform for XAU/USD trading with competitive spreads and real-time analytics.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is currently trading near $2,915, consolidating after testing resistance at $2,935.
Trend:
The short-term trend remains bullish, supported by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand, though technical indicators suggest a potential bearish correction.
Key Levels:
- Support: $2,900 (critical psychological level)
- Resistance: $2,935 (upper boundary of the descending channel)
- Long-Term Target: $3,100 (Goldman Sachs’ year-end projection)
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Look for a dip to $2,900 with bullish RSI divergence (RSI below 40) for a long position.
- Breakout Entry: Buy on a sustained close above $2,935, targeting $2,985.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $2,875 to guard against a breakdown of the support zone.
- Take Profit (TP): Set at $2,985 for the initial target, with a secondary target at $3,100 for long-term holds.
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for oversold conditions (<30) near support levels to confirm bullish reversals.
- Moving Averages: A bullish crossover of the 50-day MA above the 200-day MA could signal renewed upward momentum.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers: Central bank accumulation (e.g., Russia’s gold purchases) and ETF inflows amid rate-cut expectations.
Volatility: Geopolitical risks (e.g., U.S.-China tariffs) and economic data releases (e.g., ISM PMI) could amplify price swings.
Final Advice
Trade Setup: Enter long on a pullback to $2,900 with a tight SL at $2,875. Scale out at $2,985 and $3,100. Monitor RSI and MA crossovers for confirmation. Avoid over-leveraging given potential volatility from macroeconomic headlines.
Mindset: Gold’s role as a safe haven makes it reactive to uncertainty. Stay nimble—adjust positions if central bank demand slows or the Fed delays rate cuts. For real-time execution, leverage Exness’s tools to capitalize on intraday fluctuations.
