Market Recap
Gold trading remains dynamic in volatile markets, with recent price action reflecting corrective movements within broader bullish trends. While short-term bearish pressures dominate, strategic traders leverage technical cues for intraday setups. For reliable execution, consider Exness, a broker offering tight spreads and flexible leverage for precious metals trading.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
XAU/USD currently trades at ~$3005, consolidating after recent volatility. The asset shows constrained upward momentum, with price trapped between key horizontal resistance and Fibonacci retracement levels.
Trend:
Short-term bearish pressure persists, with moving averages indicating seller dominance. However, the broader structure suggests potential for bullish corrections, contingent on breakout conditions.
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: 3055 (daily pivot) and 3075 (critical breakout threshold)
- Primary Support: 2985 (recent swing low) and 2915 (downside target)
- Long-Term Target: 3135-3145 if bullish breakout materializes
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
Pullback Entry:
Initiate longs on dips toward 2985-2995, targeting a bounce from the lower end of the consolidation channel. Confirm with RSI re-crossing above 50 and bullish candlestick patterns on the H4 timeframe.
Breakout Entry:
Enter aggressively above 3075 with close stop-loss, aiming for 3135. This signals trend resumption and invalidates the bearish correction scenario.
Risk Management
Stop Loss (SL):
Set beneath the latest swing low (2970-2980) for long positions. For breakouts, place SL just below the breakout confirmation zone (3075 entry = SL below 3065).
Take Profit (TP):
Partial profit at 3055 (first TP level), trailing remaining position with breakeven stop-loss beyond 3035. For aggressive TP: 3085-3095 on momentum-driven rallies.
Key Indicators to Monitor
RSI:
Watch for divergence between price and RSI on lower timeframes to identify potential reversals. Oversold conditions (RSI <30) near support zones offer buying opportunities.
Moving Averages:
The 50-period (MA50) and 200-period (MA200) on the 4-hour chart serve as dynamic support/resistance. Crossovers signal shifts in momentum.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers:
- Seasonal trends showing historical strength in early spring
- Potential USD weakness amid mixed economic data
- Technical basing patterns suggesting accumulation
Volatility:
Monitor Treasury yields and US dollar index (DXY) for directional cues. High volatility events like NFP releases introduce risk but also create breakout opportunities.
Final Advice
Adopt a tactical approach optimized for the current range-bound environment. Prioritize pullback entries with tight risk management until a clear breakout emerges. For intraday traders, await confirmation through H1/H4 candle closes rather than relying solely on tick-by-tick fluctuations.
When markets show excessive bullish momentum following breakouts, expect profit-taking pullbacks toward 3055-3065. Scale in strategically β adding exposure on retracements improves risk/reward ratios.
