Contents
Market Recap
Gold traders have witnessed intense volatility over the past week, with prices plummeting from record highs near $3,500 to testing support below $3,200 before staging a partial recovery. While optimism around U.S.-China trade negotiations and a potential UK deal has tempered safe-haven demand, bullish factors remain entrenched amid geopolitical unease and Fed uncertainty. For traders seeking to capitalize on this volatility, Exness provides a robust platform to execute XAU/USD trades with competitive spreads and reliable liquidity.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is currently consolidating near $3,255 after a 0.5% rebound from Thursday’s low of $3,211.Trend:
The recent price action suggests a sideways consolidation between the $3,200 support zone and $3,435 resistance, with bullish momentum still lurking beneath the surface.Key Levels:
Support:
- Immediate: $3,200 (psychological and technical floor from recent lows)
- Stronger: $3,150 (key Fibonacci level and April 2023 highs)
Resistance:
- Short-Term: $3,300 (50-day EMA pivot)
- Critical: $3,435 (two-week high and April 2022 peak)
- Long-Term Target: $3,500+ (retest of April 2025 record highs)
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
Pullback Entry: Look to buy on retests of $3,200–$3,250 with bullish RSI divergence, targeting $3,400. Use the Exness platform’s daily charts to identify these entry windows.Breakout Entry: Initiate longs above $3,435 on daily candle closes, signaling renewed momentum toward $3,500.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,200 for pullback entries or below $3,400 for breakout strategies.
- Take Profit (TP): Target $3,400 (50% Fib retracement) and $3,500 (record high).
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: A dip below 40 on the 4-hour chart could signal buying opportunities; avoid trading if RSI re-enters overbought territory (above 70).
- Moving Averages: Watch the 50-day EMA (~$3,300) for support/resistance dynamics.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers:- Persistent geopolitical risks (Ukraine, Middle East).
- Fed’s caution on rate cuts and inflation risks.
- Limited follow-through selling despite trade optimism.
Volatility: Expect heightened price swings around U.S. CPI data and Fed commentary, creating opportunities for scalp trades within the $3,200–$3,435 range.
Final Advice
Trade Setup:- Bullish Bias: Focus on buying dips toward $3,200 with SL at $3,180.
- Target: $3,300 (50% TP) and $3,400 (full TP), adjusting for daily close structures.
- Avoid overleveraging amid potential weekend gap risks; secure partial profits at $3,300.
Monitor:
- U.S. equity market performance (inverse correlation with gold).
- USD strength/weakness via the DXY index.
- News-driven spikes in geopolitical tensions.
DISCLAIMER: The analysis provided is based on current market conditions and is for educational purposes. Always consult a financial advisor and use risk management strategies when trading forex.
