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Market Recap
Gold has shown mixed performance in recent weeks, with prices retreating from April 2025’s all-time high of $3,500 due to optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and a cautious Federal Reserve stance. Analysts remain bullish for 2025, forecasting $3,357 as a potential year-end target, but short-term volatility persists. For active traders, Exness offers competitive spreads and real-time XAU/USD pricing, making it a strategic platform for this market.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is currently trading near $3,320 per ounce, down from recent highs as risk-on sentiment dominated markets.
Trend:
A short-term corrective phase has emerged after the April peak, with prices facing resistance near $3,350. The longer-term uptrend remains intact, supported by inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties.
Key Levels:
- Immediate Support: $3,280 (recent swing low)
- Critical Resistance: $3,350 (previous consolidation zone)
- Long-Term Target: $3,357–$3,415 by year-end
Support:
$3,260–$3,280 represents a confluent area of support, combining psychological levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. A breakdown below $3,250 could signal a deeper correction.
Resistance:
$3,350–$3,380 forms a barrier of congestion, with the 200-hour simple moving average (4-hour chart) adding technical resistance. Sustained closes above this zone would confirm bullish resilience.
Long-Term Target:
Technical and fundamental models align for a sustained push toward $3,500 in 2025, contingent on macroeconomic uncertainty and central bank policy shifts.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on retests of $3,280–$3,300, targeting a bounce toward $3,350.
- Breakout Entry: Wait for a daily close above $3,350 to confirm trend continuation, targeting $3,400+ resistance.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place SL 0.5–1.0% below entry (e.g., $3,270 for a $3,300 entry).
- Take Profit (TP): Set TP at $3,350 (1:2 risk-reward) or $3,400 (aggressive 1:3 ratio).
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI (4-hour): Overbought above 70, oversold below 30; watch for divergence at extremes.
- Moving Averages: The 50-period SMA ($3,290) and 100-period SMA ($3,310) act as dynamic support/resistance.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers: Central bank gold purchases, inflation forecasts, and geopolitical risks underpin long-term upside. Volatility is influenced by U.S.-China trade developments and Fed commentary. A breakdown in trade talks or dovish Fed signals could reignite safe-haven demand.
Final Advice
Gold’s corrective phase offers traders a strategic entry window. Prioritize pullback trades at $3,280–$3,300 with tight SLs. Avoid aggressive countertrend positions until volatility stabilizes. For swing traders, the $3,350–$3,400 zone remains a critical test of bullish momentum. Stay alert to news-driven spikes and utilize tools like Exness’s economic calendar for proactive decision-making.
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