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Market Recap
Over the past few days, gold prices have experienced a modest uptick, primarily driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and declining bond yields. Spot gold edged higher, reaching approximately $3,316.77 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures increased to $3,325.60. This upward movement coincided with escalating trade tensions, as President Trump intensified tariff strategies by announcing 50% tariffs on copper imports and additional levies on other trading partners, effective August 1. Despite these developments, market sensitivity to new tariff measures appears to be waning, indicating signs of “tariff fatigue.” Additionally, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s June meeting revealed limited support for imminent interest rate cuts, with most officials preferring to wait due to tariff-related inflation risks. Source
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Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
As of July 10, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,316.77 per ounce, reflecting a slight increase from the previous day. Source
Trend:
The prevailing trend remains bullish, with gold prices experiencing a modest rally due to a weaker U.S. dollar and ongoing trade tensions. This upward momentum is supported by expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Source
Key Levels:
- Support: $3,245
- Resistance: $3,366
- Long-Term Target: $3,500
Support:
The $3,245 level has acted as a significant support, where buying interest has previously emerged, preventing further downside movement. Source
Resistance:
The $3,366 level serves as immediate resistance, with the $3,500 mark representing a longer-term target, potentially achievable if bullish momentum strengthens. Source
Long-Term Target:
A sustained break above $3,366 could pave the way for gold to test the $3,500 level, aligning with bullish forecasts from institutions like HSBC, which raised its average 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce, citing geopolitical risks. Source
Trading Strategy for XAUUSD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Consider entering a long position near the $3,245 support level, anticipating a rebound towards the $3,366 resistance. Source
- Breakout Entry: A decisive break above the $3,366 resistance could signal a bullish trend continuation, presenting an opportunity to enter a long position targeting the $3,500 level. Source
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss below the $3,245 support level to mitigate potential losses in case of a downward breakout. Source
- Take Profit (TP): Set a take profit target at the $3,366 resistance level for a pullback entry, or at the $3,500 long-term target for a breakout entry. Source
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Monitor the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for overbought or oversold conditions, which can indicate potential reversal points. Source
- Moving Averages: Keep an eye on the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to assess the overall trend direction and potential support/resistance levels. Source
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Elevated economic risks and high government debt levels are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold. Source
- Volatility: Recent market volatility, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policy, presents both opportunities and risks for traders. Source
Final Advice
Trading gold requires a keen understanding of market dynamics and a disciplined approach to risk management. By monitoring key support and resistance levels, staying informed about economic indicators, and adhering to a well-defined trading strategy, you can navigate the complexities of the gold market effectively. Always ensure that your trading decisions align with your risk tolerance and investment objectives. Source
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