Market Recap
Gold trading remains a high-reward opportunity in volatile markets, particularly for those leveraging trusted platforms like Exness. Since January 2025, gold prices have surged 23.33% to record highs above $3,250, driven by escalating US-China trade tensions and shifting central bank policies. Recent tariff escalations and cooling US inflation data have amplified safe-haven demand, with gold acting as a primary hedge against economic uncertainty.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold trades near $3,236.55 (April 11 session), having breached crucial resistance at $3,200 and targeting $3,240-3,250 zones.
Trend:
Strong bullish momentum persists, underpinned by:
- Breakout above previous 2025 highs
- Sustained demand from central bank accumulation
- Weaker USD and macroeconomic uncertainty
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $3,240.65 (1.272 Fibonacci extension), $3,250 (record high)
- Pivotal Support: $3,200 (psychological level), $3,190 (dynamic support via 30-SMA)
Long-Term Target:
Bullish analysts project $3,300-$3,500 by year-end, contingent on sustained US-China tensions and accommodative Fed policies.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Initiate long positions on retracement to $3,200 area, targeting retest of $3,240 resistance.
- Breakout Entry: Buy on sustained close above $3,240.65 (Fibonacci level), using momentum trader logic.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,190 (4-digit figure support) for tight risk management, 30-40 pips below entry.
- Take Profit (TP):
- TP1: $3,250 (immediate target, 50-70 pips profit)
- TP2: $3,300 (longer-term target, 100+ pips)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Currently overbought (above 70) but showing bullish divergence on higher timeframes β watch for pullback signals.
- Moving Averages: Price sustained above 30-SMA ($3,190) and 100-SMA ($3,063), confirming bullish structure.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers:
- US-China tariff escalation (145% imports tax)
- Disinflationary pressures supporting rate cut anticipation
- Safe-haven demand from equity market declines
- Volatility:
- Daily ATR expanding to ~$40-50 during trade war spikes
- Coordinate with USD index trends and CPI/PPI data releases
Final Advice
Gold remains a high-reward, high-risk asset today. Consider early-morning entries on pullbacks to $3,200, using tight stops below $3,190. For breakout traders, watch for closing prices above $3,240.65 β this would validate extension toward $3,300. Monitor RSI divergence and 30-SMA dynamic support for risk signals. Scale out profits at $3,250 (TP1) to lock in gains while allowing runner to $3,300 (TP2). Stay disciplined with positions sized to accommodate $40-50 daily volatility ranges.
