Market Recap
Spot gold rebounded to $3,255.01/oz after hitting a recent low of $3,211.53, reflecting a 2.1% weekly decline. This correction followed a record peak of $3,500.05 earlier in April, driven by improved trader sentiment around potential U.S.-China trade negotiations. For traders seeking reliable platforms, Exness remains a top choice due to its competitive spreads and advanced tools for XAU/USD trading.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is trading between $3,255-$3,262, showing tentative recovery after Thursday’s dip.Trend:
Short-term bearish momentum persists with lower highs-lower lows formation on weekly charts. However, Friday’s bullish candle close suggests potential consolidation.Key Levels:
- Immediate resistance: $3,320 (previous support zone)
- Breakout level: $3,340 (psychological barrier)
- Critical bull target: $3,355 (reversal validation point)
Support:
$3,205-$3,211 (recent swing low + volatility band)Resistance:
$3,255-$3,320 (weekly median line + bollinger bands)Long-Term Target:
Bearish re-test of $3,200 supports if momentum continues downward.Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
Pullback Entry: Look for price to retest $3,255 (short-term support/resistance flip) with bearish RSI divergence confirmation.
Breakout Entry: Above $3,320 with increasing volume and bullish MACD crossover. Target $3,355 immediately.
Risk Management
Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,205 (below weekly support zone) for breakout trades or below $3,240 for pullback entries.
Take Profit (TP): Primary TP at $3,200 (bearish) or $3,140 (aggressive). Bullish trades: 1:1 risk-reward ratio beyond $3,340.
Key Indicators to Monitor
RSI: 40-45 range indicates neutral conditions; watch for close below 40 to confirm bearish momentum.
Moving Averages: 20-period MA ($3,295) acting as dynamic resistance. Bull cross above 50-period MA ($3,310) required for trend reversal.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers:
- Profit-taking pressure from recent highs.
- Seasonal March buying patterns may influence mid-month rebounds.
- Geopolitical safe-haven demand could reignite if trade talks stall.
Volatility: Elevated due to U.S.-China trade uncertainty; use ATR to gauge risk with 1.5% daily price swings expected.
Final Advice
Execute trades during London/New York overlap (13:00-16:00 GMT) for maximum liquidity. For bearish entries:- Confirm break below $3,255 with bearish candle close.
- Set SL just below $3,240.
- TP1: $3,205 | TP2: $3,200.
- Await sustained price action above $3,320.
- Use $3,300 as SL (re-test level).
- Scale profits at $3,355 (recent swing high).
