Market Recap
Gold prices have shown extreme volatility in early April 2025, reaching record highs of $3,139.90 before correcting to $3,012. Factors like escalating US-China trade tensions, central bank demand, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to drive market sentiment. For traders seeking to capitalize on these conditions, Exness remains a top choice for executing XAU/USD trades with competitive spreads and reliable liquidity.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
The current gold price hovers near $3,237.65, reflecting a slight rebound from the April 7 low of $3,012. Recent price action reveals a consolidating pattern within a defined ascending channel.
Trend:
The predominant trend remains bullish, though recent corrections have tested key support levels. The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating maintained bullish momentum.
Key Levels:
- Support: $3,000 psychological level and daily Bollinger Band lower boundary.
- Resistance: $3,139.90 (April 2 high) and ascending channel upper boundary.
- Long-Term Target: $3,300-$3,500 range per institutional forecasts.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
Pullback Entry: Aggressive bulls may look to buy near $3,000 support, leveraging the Bollinger Band lower threshold as confirmation.
Breakout Entry: Conservative traders should await a sustained close above $3,139.90 resistance, signaling renewed bullish momentum.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place SL 1.5-2% below entry point, max $2,950 if entering near support.
- Take Profit (TP):
- First TP: $3,200 (risk-reward 1:2)
- Second TP: $3,500 (risk-reward 1:3)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for divergence signals if RSI approaches overbought (70+) levels during rallies.
- Moving Averages: 14-day SMA ($2,992.50) and 200-day SMA ($2,773.17) provide dynamic support/resistance.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Escalating US-China trade tensions, central bank accumulation (particularly China), and sustained safe-haven demand.
- Volatility: Prepare for 150-200 pips daily swings; avoid overexposure during thin liquidity periods.
Final Advice
Open Order: Enter long positions at $3,000-$3,012 (pullback strategy) or $3,140+ (breakout) with tight stop-loss. Monitor H1 RSI for confirmation and price interaction with ascending channel boundaries.
Close Order: Exit first 50% at $3,200; let the remaining position ride toward $3,500 with trailing stop. Reassess position if price rejects $3,139 resistance with increased volume.
Remember to trade with institutions like Exness that offer negative balance protection and efficient order execution during high-volatility events. Always validate entry signals with multiple timeframes and never risk more than 2% of capital per trade.
