Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices experienced significant volatility last week, peaking at $3,245.42 before retreating to $3,193 due to improved market sentiment and tariff exemptions. Despite this pullback, bullish momentum remains intact, supported by Goldman Sachs’ revised 2025 price target of $3,700. For traders seeking exposure to gold’s volatility, Exness provides competitive trading conditions for XAU/USD.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold currently trades near $3,210–$3,245, with recent highs at $3,245.42.Trend:
The medium-term trend remains bullish, with prices consolidating within a bullish channel. Short-term corrective pressure has emerged after overbought conditions in the RSI.Key Levels:
- Immediate Support: $3,195 (H1 chart low)
- Critical Support: $3,167 (next psychological barrier)
- Resistance Zone: $3,250–$3,265 (technical barrier)
- Long-Term Target: $3,485–$3,700 (Goldman Sachs’ 2025 forecast)
Support:
Buyers are defending $3,195, which coincides with the first Fibonacci retracement level. A break below this could trigger a steeper decline toward $3,167.Resistance:
Bulls face a hurdle at $3,250–$3,265, aligned with previous swing highs and the upper boundary of the bullish channel.Long-Term Target:
If $3,265 is breached, the next target is $3,485, followed by Goldman Sachs’ optimistic $3,700 price by year-end.Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry:
- Entry Level: $3,195–$3,193 (near H1 support)
- Rationale: Retests of key support often attract buyers, especially with RSI exiting overbought territory.
- Breakout Entry:
- Entry Level: Above $3,265 (daily resistance)
- Rationale: A close above this zone confirms bullish momentum toward $3,485.
Risk Management
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Stop Loss (SL) | $3,167 (below key support) |
| Take Profit (TP) | $3,250 (conservative) / $3,485 (aggressive) |
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: A drop below 70 signals diminishing bullish momentum. Rebounds from 40–45 could indicate renewed buying pressure.
- Moving Averages: The 50-day MA at $2,050 and 200-day MA at $1,816 remain bullish, but short-term MAs (e.g., 14-period) are critical for intraday trends.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Central bank demand (300+ metric tons/year) and recession-induced safe-haven demand.
- Volatility Triggers: US-China tariff developments and Fed policy changes could amplify swings. Trade tensions are currently a mixed signal, with exemptions reducing immediate risk.
Final Advice
Focus on the $3,195 support level for pullback opportunities. If broken, exit positions or tighten stops. For breakout traders, wait for a close above $3,265 before entering. Use trailing stops to lock in gains as prices approach $3,250 and $3,485. Monitor RSI for overbought/oversold extremes and align trades with the bullish channel’s boundaries.Note: Trade with proper risk management—position sizing should account for potential volatility spikes.
