Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have shown significant volatility in recent days, influenced by geopolitical tensions and central bank activity. While the metal reached record highs earlier in April 2025, corrections have since emerged, creating opportunities for strategic trades. For traders looking to capitalize on these movements, Exness remains a trusted platform for executing XAU/USD trades with competitive spreads and efficient execution.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading near $3,229, reflecting consolidation after a sharp rally earlier this month.Trend:
The broader trend remains bullish, with prices confined to an ascending channel. Short-term bearish corrections are expected, but buyers remain in control.Key Levels:
- Immediate Support: $3,140β$3,150 (previous resistance-turned-support zone)
- Stronger Support: $3,035 (critical level for maintaining bullish momentum)
- Resistance: $3,250β$3,265 (convergence of contract peaks and technical resistance)
- Long-Term Target: $3,485 (next major upside target if bullish channel persists)
Support:
$3,000β$3,035 acts as a critical psychological and technical floor. A breach below $3,035 could trigger deeper corrections, targeting $2,925.Resistance:
$3,250β$3,265 represents a crucial barrier. A sustained breakout here would confirm bullish momentum, paving the way for $3,485.Long-Term Target:
Analysts project $3,500 and higher levels if geopolitical risks escalate and central banks continue gold accumulation.Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Seek long positions on dips to $3,140β$3,150, where RSI support and moving averages align. A 50% retracement of recent gains could provide a high-probability entry.
- Breakout Entry: Enter long if price closes above $3,265 with volume confirmation. This level marks a critical resistance zone and contract concentration.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place SL below $3,035 (for pullback entries) or below $3,250 (for breakout entries). Protect capital from false breakouts.
- Take Profit (TP): Set TP at $3,400 (partial exit) and $3,485 (full exit). Trail stops to lock in gains if momentum slows.
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for bullish RSI divergence on lower time frames or bounces from 40-50 levels. Overbought conditions (RSI >70) signal potential pullbacks.
- Moving Averages: The 100-hour and 200-hour MAs (currently ~$3,200) act as dynamic support. A close below these averages would invalidate short-term bullishness.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: – Safe-haven demand amid trade tensions and tariffs – Central bank accumulation (China, India) – Technical breakout potential in ascending channels
- Volatility: Monitor macroeconomic data (e.g., U.S. NFP, Fed commentary) for catalysts. Volatility peaks around news events may create false breakouts.
Final Advice
Enter long positions at $3,140β$3,150 with SL below $3,035 and TP at $3,485. For breakout traders, wait for a close above $3,265 with rising volume. Avoid over-leveraging given the metalsβ inherent volatility β use 1:2 risk-reward ratios. Prioritize protecting capital during geopolitical shocks or surprise rate adjustments.