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Market Recap
Gold prices have recently experienced a rebound, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and retreating Treasury yields. Spot gold rose by 0.5% to $3,339.88 per ounce, and U.S. gold futures edged higher by 0.3% to $3,346.70. The U.S. dollar index retreated from a one-month high, making gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds also declined after reaching multi-week highs. Investors are closely watching the development of U.S. trade policies, particularly potential tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU, and how these could impact inflation and economic stability. U.S. consumer prices rose in June at the highest rate in five months, hinting at inflationary pressure from tariffs. In response, Dallas Fed Bank President Lorie Logan suggested that the Federal Reserve might keep interest rates stable to support low inflation. Gold is typically buoyed by low interest rates and market uncertainty. Traders now await the U.S. Producer Price Index data for further economic indications. Other precious metals also posted gains, with silver climbing 0.5% to $37.88 per ounce, platinum rising 0.3% to $1,376.75, and palladium dipping 0.1% to $1,204.97. source
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Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
As of July 16, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,339.88 per ounce, reflecting a 26.6% increase in 2025. source
Trend:
The prevailing trend is bullish, with gold prices experiencing a significant rally due to heightened global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. source
Key Levels:
- Support: $3,245
- Resistance: $3,366
- Long-Term Target: $3,500
Support:
The $3,245 level has acted as a significant support, where buying interest has previously emerged, preventing further downside movement. source
Resistance:
The $3,366 level serves as immediate resistance, with the $3,500 mark representing a longer-term target, potentially achievable if bullish momentum strengthens. source
Long-Term Target:
A sustained break above $3,366 could pave the way for gold to test the $3,500 level, aligning with bullish forecasts from institutions like HSBC, which raised its average 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce, citing geopolitical risks. source
Trading Strategy for XAUUSD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Consider entering long positions on a pullback to the $3,300β$3,320 zone, aligning with the 50-period moving average and the 38.2%β50% Fibonacci retracement levels. source
- Breakout Entry: A close above $3,372 with increased volume could signal a resumption of the uptrend. Confirm with bullish RSI divergence above 60. source
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the recent swing low, around $3,245, to protect against unexpected market reversals. source
- Take Profit (TP): Set the first take profit target at $3,366, the immediate resistance level, and consider a second target at $3,500, aligning with long-term bullish forecasts. source
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, indicating neutral market conditions. Watch for divergence during pullbacks to identify potential reversal points. source
- Moving Averages: The 50-period moving average is at $3,310, providing dynamic support. A crossover above the 200-period moving average at $3,280 would confirm bullish momentum. source
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand from U.S.-China trade uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations remain in play. However, USD strength and overbought RSI readings (above 70) suggest caution. source
- Volatility: Monitor Federal Reserve policy statements and geopolitical developments, as these often trigger sharp price swings. source
Final Advice
Prioritize breakouts above $3,366 with tight stop losses. If entering on pullbacks, ensure price holds above $3,245. Exit 50% of positions at $3,366 and ride the remainder toward $3,500. Monitor Fed commentary and geopolitical news for volatility spikes. source
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