Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have experienced significant volatility in recent days, with a sharp pullback from early May highs around $3,500 to current levels near $3,200. While annual performance remains strong (up 22.08% YTD), technical overextension and USD strength have fueled short-term bearish momentum. For traders seeking leverage, Exness offers competitive conditions for XAU/USD trading.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is testing critical support at $3,200–$3,250, with immediate resistance near $3,300.Trend:
Bearish short-term, with daily/weekly charts showing a reversal pattern after the parabolic ascent earlier this year. Long-term remains bullish due to geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations.Key Levels:
- Support: $3,190 (psychological + 2023 high)
- Resistance: $3,300 (20-day moving average)
- Long-Term Target: $3,500 (2024 peak retest)
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on test of $3,190 with bullish RSI divergence (target $3,300)
- Breakout Entry: Sell short on sustained break below $3,180 with volume confirmation (target $3,100)
Risk Management
| Stop Loss (SL) | Below $3,170 (bearish scenario) or $3,330 (bullish scenario) |
|---|---|
| Take Profit (TP) | Partial TP at $3,300 (1:1 risk-reward), full TP at $3,500 |
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for oversold signals below 30 on hourly/daily charts to gauge buy opportunities
- Moving Averages: 30-period EMA ($3,260) and 50-period EMA ($3,280) – crossovers signal trend shifts
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers:
- Central bank rate cuts anticipation
- USD Index volatility spiking demand for safe-haven assets
- Volatility: High ATR readings suggest 3–5% daily swings – ideal for scalp trading with tight stops
Final Advice
Gold’s transition from a trending market to a range-bound phase requires disciplined exit strategies. Prioritize quick profits in volatile conditions, using the $3,200–$3,300 zone as a primary battleground. Maintain position sizing below 2% of account equity, and avoid over-leveraging during NFP or FOMC announcements. If today’s open trades below $3,250, consider short-term bearish bets with SL above $3,280. For bullish plays, look for reversals above the 30-period EMA with bullish VIX correlations.