Market Recap
Gold prices have shown remarkable resilience, briefly piercing the $3,000 psychological barrier on March 14 and 17, 2025, though closing at $2,996.50 in the LBMA PM fix. This surge from $2,500 to $3,000 in just 210 days reflects heightened investor demand driven by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and a weaker US dollar. Recent volatility stems from profit-taking after the milestone breach, with prices hovering near $2,997 as of March 18.
Exness remains a preferred platform for XAU/USD trading due to its competitive spreads and reliable execution during volatile sessions.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is currently trading near $2,997, oscillating between bullish momentum and profit-taking pullbacks.
Trend:
The broader trend remains bullish, supported by a bullish channel and upward-moving averages. However, short-term consolidation is likely after the rapid ascent to $3,000.
Key Levels:
- Support: $2,965 (immediate), $2,945 (critical), $2,905 (bearish breakdown)
- Resistance: $3,005 (near-term), $3,055 (bullish target), $3,050 (next psychological barrier)
- Long-Term Target: $3,055–$3,100 if the bullish channel holds
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on a dip to $2,965, targeting $3,055. Look for RSI bullish trend line support and a rebound from the lower channel boundary.
- Breakout Entry: Enter long if prices close above $3,005, confirming bullish momentum.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $2,945 for pullback entries or below $3,000 for breakout trades.
- Take Profit (TP): Set at $3,055 (primary) or $3,100 (aggressive).
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for bullish divergence or a test of the trend line on the RSI.
- Moving Averages: Short-term averages (e.g., 50-period) remain above long-term averages, signaling sustained bullish pressure.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers: Geopolitical uncertainty, ETF inflows (+3.88M oz YTD), and central bank buying continue to underpin demand.
Volatility: Anticipate intraday swings of 50–100 pips during Fed meetings or geopolitical news.
Final Advice
Gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on whether it sustains above $3,000. For today’s trade:
- Enter on a pullback to $2,965 with a tight SL below $2,945.
- Scale out profits at $3,055, leaving room for a potential push to $3,100 if momentum persists.
- Monitor RSI and moving averages for trend confirmation.
Stay nimble—gold’s volatility rewards disciplined risk management.
