[GOLD 2023-10-04]

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Market Recap

Gold has been on a remarkable journey, with prices recently surpassing the $3,500 per ounce mark. This surge is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and robust central bank purchases. Notably, JP Morgan forecasts that gold prices will cross $4,000 per ounce by the second quarter of 2026, driven by heightened recession risks amid escalating U.S. tariffs and the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict. Source

For those looking to trade XAUUSD, it’s advantageous to do so with Exness, a platform known for its high leverage and tight spreads, facilitating efficient gold trading. Source

Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

As of June 29, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,355 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous day. Source

Trend:

The overall trend remains bullish, with gold prices maintaining levels above $3,300 per ounce. However, recent downward revisions in forecasts suggest potential short-term bearishness. Source

Key Levels:

Support:

• $3,277.91: First line of support on retracements.
• $3,228.38: Secondary support zone.
• $3,184.80 (50-day SMA): Strong technical base and potential trend reversal point. Source

Resistance:

• $3,310.48: Recently breached; serves as the immediate breakout level.
• $3,435.06: Next technical resistance.
• $3,500.20: All-time high and significant psychological barrier. Source

Long-Term Target:

Analysts have mixed long-term projections for gold prices. Citi anticipates prices could fall below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026. Source Conversely, Bank of America forecasts gold will trade at $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 per ounce in 2026. Source

Trading Strategy for XAUUSD

Entry Points

Pullback Entry:

Consider entering a long position if the price retraces to the $3,277.91 support level, with confirmation from bullish indicators such as a bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Source

Breakout Entry:

Enter a long position if the price breaks above the $3,310.48 resistance level, with increased volume confirming the breakout. Source

Risk Management

Stop Loss (SL):

Place a stop-loss order below the $3,184.80 support level to protect against potential downside risk. Source

Take Profit (TP):

Set a take-profit order near the $3,500 resistance level to secure profits before potential market reversals. Source

Key Indicators to Monitor

RSI:

Monitor the RSI for signs of overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 indicates overbought conditions, while below 30 suggests oversold conditions. Source

Moving Averages:

Keep an eye on the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to gauge the overall trend direction. A price above these EMAs suggests a bullish trend. Source

Rationale for Strategy

Bullish Drivers:

• Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties continue to support gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
• Robust central bank purchases indicate sustained demand for gold.

Volatility:

Gold markets are experiencing increased volatility due to ongoing global economic and political developments. It’s crucial to stay informed and adjust trading strategies accordingly.

Final Advice

Trading XAUUSD requires a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics, technical analysis, and risk management. Utilize platforms like Exness, which offer high leverage and tight spreads, to enhance trading efficiency. Source Always stay updated with the latest market news and forecasts to make informed trading decisions.