Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have shown volatility recently, with conflicting signals from bullish breakouts and USD-driven corrections. The Exness platform remains a solid choice for trading XAU/USD, offering low spreads and reliable execution during market turbulence.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,250, reflecting a pullback from recent highs after a sharp 3% drop on May 21 due to USD strength.Trend:
The short-term trend appears corrective after a parabolic uptrend stalled. Longer-term forecasts suggest potential consolidation before resuming upward momentum.Key Levels:
- Support: $3,240 (previous swing lows after May 21 drop)
- Resistance: $3,275 (near-term barrier), $3,375 (longer-term target)
Long-Term Target:
Strategists project $3,357 by year-end 2025, contingent on Fed policy shifts and USD stability.Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy during retests of $3,240 support (with bullish RSI divergence)
- Breakout Entry: Enter on sustained close above $3,275 resistance
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,230 (low of recent correction) to limit downside risk
- Take Profit (TP): Target $3,275 (first resistance) and $3,375 (ambitious target)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for oversold conditions (<30) on pullbacks to signal buying opportunities
- Moving Averages: Confirmed breaks above the 20-period MA ($3,260) suggest renewed bullish momentum
Rationale for Strategy
Gold remains sensitive to USD trends and inflation data. Bullish drivers like safe-haven demand and weak dollar scenarios clash with corrective pressures from overbought conditions. Tight stop-losses mitigate volatility risks while maximizing reward ratios.Final Advice
- Entry Timing: Look for false breakdowns below $3,240 or clean breaks above $3,275 to confirm direction.
- Position Sizing: Risk 1-2% of capital per trade to align with stop-loss placements.
- Monitor Trigger Points:
- Bearish: Sustained break below $3,230 invalidates bullish outlook.
- Bullish: Close above $3,275 revives $3,375 target.
Note: Always revalidate signals with updated RSI readings and USD Index movements before executing trades.
