Contents
Market Recap
Trading gold on XAU/USD is a strategic move in volatile markets, offering opportunities for traders to capitalize on economic shifts. For those seeking a reliable platform, Exness provides competitive spreads and robust tools to execute your trades effectively.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold currently trades between $3,205 (key support) and $3,250 (strong resistance), reflecting a tight consolidation phase. The price rejected a spike to $3,250 during the Asian session, signaling bearish sentiment intraday.Trend:
The medium-term trend remains bearish, with XAU/USD testing lower highs after a parabolic upswing. Recent analysis highlights an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD, which may continue exerting downward pressure on gold.Key Levels:
- Support: $3,205–$3,206 (critical floor from prior sessions).
- Resistance: $3,250 (multi-session rejection zone).
- Long-Term Target: $3,371.98 (bullish cap per technical models).
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on a dip to $3,205–$3,206, targeting $3,220–$3,250 on a bounce.
- Breakout Entry: Enter long if price closes above $3,250, aiming for $3,271–$3,280 (next resistance).
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,200 (1.5% risk threshold) for pullback entries or below breakout entry price minus 0.8–1.2%.
- Take Profit (TP):
- First TP: $3,220 (conservative exit).
- Second TP: $3,250 (full trend capture).
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for divergence below 50 on intraday charts to confirm bearish momentum.
- Moving Averages: The 50-day SMA at $3,215 acts as a pivot point; a close below signals weakness.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Fed dovishness or geopolitical tensions could spark safe-haven demand.
- Volatility: Monitor FOMC speeches and USD index moves, as sudden swings are likely.
Final Advice
Execute Strategy:- Entry Choice: Opt for pullback entries if price bounces off $3,205–$3,206; avoid chasing breakouts until resistance is cleared.
- Risk Protocol: Never risk more than 1.5% of your capital per trade. Adjust SL/TP dynamically based on volatility.
- Monitoring: Track real-time Fed commentary and USD moves. Exit trades ahead of high-impact economic data.
Disciplined Trading: Gold’s current range presents asymmetric risk-reward. Favor entries with clear Reward-to-Risk ratios (e.g., 2:1 for longs). Stay agile—bearish momentum could reaccelerate if USD gains traction.
