[GOLD 23.10.2023] Ride the Bullish Wave: How to Maximize Profits with XAU/USD Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Market Recap

Gold remains one of the most compelling instruments for traders in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies, and resurgent investor demand. For those seeking to capitalize on its volatility, Exness offers low spreads and efficient execution, making it a strategic choice for trading XAU/USD.

Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

XAU/USD is currently trading at $3,365.68 as of April 23, 2025, reflecting a 29.20 increase on the day. This aligns with a broader bullish trajectory, marking a 27.14% YTD gain.

Trend:

The dominant trend remains bullish, supported by record highs in 2025 and macroeconomic uncertainty. JP Morgan projects sustained upward momentum, targeting $3,675 by Q4 2025 and $4,000 by Q2 2026.

Key Levels:

• Immediate Resistance: $3,365–$3,371 (April 23 high + predicted quarterly target)
• Critical Support: $3,305 (breakout invalidation level)
• Long-Term Target: $3,500–$4,000, contingent on monetary policy and trade dynamics

Trading Strategy for XAU/USD

Entry Points

• Pullback Entry: Look for retracements to $3,305–$3,320, a zone aligning with recent support and institutional interest.
• Breakout Entry: Enter long if price closes above $3,365 (current resistance), signaling continuation toward $3,400.

Risk Management

• Stop Loss: Place SL at $3,295–$3,300 to account for volatility below critical support.
• Take Profit:
  • Short-Term TP: $3,350–$3,400 (1:1–1:3 risk-reward ratio)
  • Long-Term TP: $3,500 (aligned with 2025 forecasts)

Key Indicators to Monitor

• RSI: Watch for overbought signals (above 70) for potential pullbacks.
• Moving Averages: 50-period SMA ($3,320) and 200-period SMA ($3,150) to gauge trend strength.

Rationale for Strategy

• Bullish Drivers:
  • Geopolitical Pressures: Escalating U.S.-China tariffs and recession fears.
  • Institutional Demand: Central banks and ETFs maintaining aggressive gold purchases.
  • Volatility Catalysts: Fed policy shifts and inflation updates.

Final Advice

• Trade Setup:
  • Entry: Buy pullbacks to $3,305 with SL at $3,300.
  • Exit: Partial TP at $3,350; let remainder ride toward $3,500.
  • Monitor: RSI divergence and Fed commentary for trend reversals.

Critical Note: A breach below $3,305 invalidates the bullish thesis. Prioritize risk management in this high-volatility environment.