Contents
Market Recap
Trading gold through platforms like Exness offers access to XAU/USD during periods of high volatility. Recent geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariff policies under President Trump, and shifting Fed expectations have driven gold’s rally. Prices surged from $2,620 to $3,065 this month, with consolidations forming ahead of key economic data releases.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
XAU/USD oscillates between $2,981–$3,045, testing consolidation patterns. Recent pullbacks have found support near $3,004, with resistance at $3,045.Trend:
Short-term bullish momentum persists, though bearish corrections are emerging. The price action remains bounded by a descending channel, signaling potential volatility.Key Levels:
- Support: $3,015 (critical short-term), $2,980 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), $2,955 (50% retracement)
- Resistance: $3,025 (immediate), $3,045 (upper channel boundary), $3,095 (breakout target)
- Long-Term Target: $3,095–$3,309 if breakout occurs; $2,955–$2,865 if the correction deepens
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy dips toward $3,015–$3,000, aligning with Fibonacci support and the lower channel boundary.
- Breakout Entry: Consider long positions if XAU/USD closes above $3,045, targeting $3,095.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place SL below $2,980 for pullback entries (protecting against deep corrections) or below $3,015 for breakout positions.
- Take Profit (TP): Partial TP at $3,045–$3,065; full TP at $3,095 for breakout scenarios.
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for overbought signals above 70, signaling potential consolidation.
- Moving Averages: Bullish crossover between 50-period and 200-period MA on the H4 chart reinforces upward bias.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Geopolitical risks (Middle East, Ukraine), Trump’s tariffs, expectations of Fed easing, and seasonal buying in March.
- Volatility: Key economic events (e.g., U.S. employment data) could trigger sharp swings; avoid overleveraging during news releases.
Final Advice
Focus on trend-following strategies with tight risk management. Confirm breakouts above $3,045 or buy dips near $3,015, using RSI and Fibonacci levels as validation. Prioritize closing positions before high-impact news to mitigate risk, and scale out gains as prices approach $3,095. Stay agile—gold’s trajectory hinges on geopolitical developments and dollar dynamics.