[GOLD 25.05.2025] Navigate Short-Term Bearish Momentum with Strategic Entries and Risk Management

Market Recap

Gold remains one of the most liquid and volatile markets, offering traders substantial opportunities. For those considering leveraged trading, Exness provides competitive spreads and execution speed, ideal for day trading XAU/USD.

Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

XAU/USD is currently trading around 3,299.05, reflecting a slight monthly decline (-1.12%) despite a 38.49% year-to-date gain.

Trend:

Short-Term Bearish Momentum dominates due to recent sell-offs triggered by USD strength and overbought conditions. However, long-term models still suggest upward potential.

Key Levels:

• Immediate Support: 3,249.60 (Quarterly forecast floor)
• Critical Resistance: 3,180 (previous failure point)
• Long-Term Target: 3,390.89 (12-month estimate)

Trading Strategy for XAU/USD

Entry Points

Pullback Entry: Look to enter long positions if gold rebounds to 3,270 – 3,280 (testing the 200-day moving average support). Breakout Entry: Consider short positions on a sustained break below 3,180, targeting the 3,040 – 3,060 zone (psychological support).

Risk Management

Stop Loss (SL):

• Longs: SL below 3,240 (2% risk per trade)
• Shorts: SL above 3,200 (2% risk per trade)

Take Profit (TP):

• Longs: First TP at 3,330 (+1.8%), Second TP at 3,390 (+2.8%)
• Shorts: First TP at 3,080 (-1.6%), Second TP at 3,040 (-2.5%)

Key Indicators to Monitor

• RSI: Ideal entry zones at <30 (oversold) or>70 (overbought). Current RSI around 52 suggests neutral momentum.
• Moving Averages: Watch the 50-period MA (short-term resistance) and 200-period MA (long-term support).

Rationale for Strategy

Bullish Drivers:

1. Central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions.
2. Expected Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025.

Volatility Watch: US economic data releases and USD Index movements remain critical triggers.

Final Advice

This market demands precision. For today’s session:

1. Avoid impulsive trades during low-volatility periods.
2. Target intraday swings of 20-30 pips using strict risk-reward ratios.
3. Exit at the first TP if short-term bearish momentum re-enters. Remember: Gold’s volatility makes trailing stops (50% of position size at breakeven) essential for profit preservation.