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Market Recap
Gold prices have faced volatility in recent days, oscillating around the $2,900 mark as traders grapple with mixed signals from US economic data and geopolitical uncertainty. The metal’s resilience above the 21-day SMA at $2,890 has kept bullish momentum intact, though resistance at $2,940 remains a critical hurdle. For traders seeking to capitalize on these trends, Exness offers a robust platform for executing XAU/USD trades with competitive spreads and reliable execution.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold is currently trading near $2,900, struggling to sustain gains above this level amid USD strength and fluctuating Treasury yields.
Trend:
The short-term trend remains bullish, supported by the 21-day SMA and a bullish RSI (58). However, consolidation near $2,900 suggests caution ahead of key US data releases.
Key Levels:
- Immediate Resistance: $2,940 (previous swing high)
- Critical Support: $2,890 (21-day SMA)
- Long-Term Target: $3,000 (psychological milestone)
Support:
Buyers are defending $2,890, with a breakdown risking a drop to $2,877 (February low).
Resistance:
A sustained break above $2,940 could unlock a retest of the all-time high at $2,956.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dips toward $2,890 (21-day SMA) with a stop-loss below $2,877.
- Breakout Entry: Enter long if prices close above $2,940, targeting $2,956.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place SL below $2,877 for pullback entries or below $2,930 for breakout trades.
- Take Profit (TP): Aim for $2,940 (pullback) or $2,956 (breakout).
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: A dip below 50 could signal overbought conditions; current RSI at 58 suggests room for upside.
- Moving Averages: The 21-day SMA ($2,890) and 50-day SMA ($2,850) are critical support levels.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Anticipation of Fed rate cuts (priced in for 2025) and safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainty.
- Volatility: Mixed Trump tariff messages and US GDP revisions (Q4 2024) could trigger sharp moves.
Final Advice
Gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on US economic data and Fed policy signals. Traders should prioritize risk management, using the 21-day SMA as a pivot point. A bullish breakout above $2,940 could accelerate gains toward $3,000, while a failure to hold $2,890 may trigger a correction. Stay nimble, as tariff-related USD volatility and Fed commentary will likely dictate intraday swings.
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