Market Recap
Gold trading remains a dynamic opportunity, with XAU/USD showing volatility amid macroeconomic shifts. For those considering entry, Exness offers competitive spreads and reliable execution in precious metals trading.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
XAU/USD is currently oscillating near the $3,017-$3,020 range, maintaining its position above the critical $3,000 threshold.
Trend:
Short-term: Bearish momentum persists within a descending channel, though technical indicators signal potential bullish reversal. Long-term: Uptrend remains intact with RSI at 67 (bullish territory) and ascending triangle patterns suggesting upward momentum.
Key Levels:
- Support: $3,005 (psychologically significant), $2,982 (previous week’s low), $2,965 (21-day SMA confluence)
- Resistance: $3,025 (descending channel upper border), $3,040 (breakout threshold), $3,058 (record high)
- Long-Term Target: $3,075-$3,080 (ascending triangle projection)
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
Pullback entries between $3,005-$3,000 offering higher risk-reward ratios. Breakout entries above $3,040 targeting $3,058-$3,080.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Below $3,000 for long positions, targeting a 1:2 risk-reward ratio
- Take Profit (TP): Initial target at $3,025, second at $3,058, with final objective at $3,080
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Current 67 level suggests approaching overbought territory; pullbacks to 55-60 may present buying opportunities
- Moving Averages: 14-period SMA ($3,000) and 21-period SMA ($2,963) acting as dynamic support/resistance bands
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers: – Safe-haven demand driven by tariff uncertainties – Dovish Fed signals contrasting with inflation fears – Technical breakout potential above $3,040
Volatility: Expected to surge ahead of US PCE inflation data and Fed commentary; intra-day swings could reach 2500-3000 pips.
Final Advice
Monitor US PCE inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for catalysts. Consider scaling positions β partial entries at pullbacks, with full allotment on confirmed breakouts.
For beginners: Initiate long positions with SL below $3,000 and TP at $3,058. Reassess strategy post-PCE data release, adjusting targets based on volatility response.
