Market Recap
Gold prices remain volatile amid shifting macroeconomic dynamics, creating strategic opportunities for traders on platforms like Exness, which provides robust tools for XAU/USD trading. Recent developments include a minor correction to $3,333/oz (XAU/USD) due to improved trade rhetoric under Trump’s tariff delay, but bullish tailwinds persist from US fiscal risks and stable demand from emerging markets.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Current Value: $3,333 (May 27, 2025). Forecast models suggest potential upward momentum toward $3,402–3,500/oz in the near term.
Trend:
Short-term corrective pullback following Trump’s tariff delay announcement, but the broader trend remains upward-driven by:
- US budget uncertainty post-tax legislation
- Geopolitical risks and safe-haven demand
- Ongoing central bank dovishness
Key Levels:
Support:
Current consolidation area: $3,300–3,320. Psychological support near $3,200.
Resistance:
Immediate resistance: $3,350–3,400. Major breakout target: $3,500 (Citigroup’s 3-month forecast).
Long-Term Target:
$3,500/oz (Citigroup projection) and potentially higher if US fiscal challenges escalate.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dip to $3,300–3,320 with confirmation of bullish reversal patterns (e.g., bullish candlestick or RSI rebound below 40)
- Breakout Entry: Long position above $3,350 with volume surge on intraday charts
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Set below immediate support at $3,290–3,295. Adjust to breakeven once price consolidates 1.5% upward
- Take Profit (TP):
- TP1: $3,400 (+1.5% from entry)
- TP2: $3,500 (+4%+ target)
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Look for divergence during pullbacks; avoid overbought signals above 70
- Moving Averages: Monitor 4-hour MA cross (e.g., 50-period MA $3,320, 200-period MA $3,250)
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish drivers include:
- Escalating US deficit risks under Trump’s tax policy
- Resilient physical demand from China/India
- Central bank diversification into gold reserves
Volatility remains elevated due to geopolitical unpredictability and Fed policy deliberations.
Final Advice
Execute trades with tight stops and partial profit-taking. Use consolidation at $3,333 as a base for entry, targeting $3,400–3,500. Scale out positions on reaching TP2 and monitor US fiscal policy updates closely. Always maintain risk/reward ratio >1:2.
