Market Recap
Trading gold on platforms like Exness is ideal during periods of heightened volatility, as the yellow metal acts as a safe-haven asset. Recent geopolitical tensions—including new U.S. tariffs and central bank demand—have driven XAU/USD to near-record highs, making it a focal point for short-term traders and long-term investors alike.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,052, hovering near its March 20 all-time high of $3,057.21.
Trend:
Both short-term and medium-term trends are bullish, with prices consolidating above key moving averages. The recent rebound off the 3025 support zone reinforces upward momentum.
Key Levels:
- Support: 3025 (immediate), 3005 (critical), 2965 (long-term)
- Resistance: 3095 (near-term target), 3075 (minor hurdle), 3300 (2025 forecast)
Long-Term Target:
Goldman Sachs projects $3,300 by year-end, driven by sustained ETF inflows and central bank gold acquisitions.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
Pullback Entry: Buy on a dip to 3025, where the 20 SMA and bullish trend lines converge. This aligns with the current descending channel’s lower boundary.Breakout Entry: Go long if prices close above 3095, confirming a break from the recent consolidation pattern.
Risk Management
Stop Loss (SL): Place at 3020 (below immediate support) with a 1:2 risk-reward ratio. For aggressive traders, a tighter SL at 3040 could work.Take Profit (TP):
- First TP: 3090 (minor resistance)
- Second TP: 3075 (key psychological level) or 3095 (consolidation breakthrough)
Key Indicators to Monitor
RSI: Look for bullish divergence or a test of the ascending channel’s trend line. A rejection at oversold levels (below 30) could confirm upward momentum.Moving Averages: The 20 SMA and 50 SMA provide dynamic support. Bullish crossovers between these averages reinforce trend strength.
Rationale for Strategy
Bullish Drivers:- Geopolitical risk from U.S. tariffs
- Weak USD index supporting non-yielding assets
- Institutional inflows into gold ETFs
Volatility: Expected during NFP releases and central bank policy meetings. Use 15-30 minute timeframes for intraday entries but prioritize weekly closes for trend confirmation.
Final Advice
For today’s XAU/USD trade:
- Entry: Wait for a pullback to 3025 with bullish RSI divergence or a break above 3095.
- SL: 3020 maximum risk, tighter stops at 3040 for shorter holds.
- TP: Capture 50-75 pips at 3090, hold remaining position to 3075 (if sub-3095) or 3095 (breakout scenario).
- Catalysts: Monitor USD strength and key technical levels. A close below 3005 would invalidate bullish momentum.
Remember, in volatile markets, patience and risk discipline are your greatest allies. Gold’s safe-haven appeal remains intact, but price action must validate technical setups to minimize downside exposure.
