Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have shown resilience in recent sessions, recovering from intraday dips to test key resistance levels. Traders should consider the current technical setup and fundamental drivers when planning their strategy. For those looking to trade Exness, the platform offers competitive spreads and tools tailored to precious metal trading.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
XAU/USD is currently oscillating between $3,020 and $3,060, with recent closes near the upper end of this range.Trend:
A bullish trend dominates on the daily timeframe, supported by upward momentum in moving averages and sustained buying pressure. Intricate consolidation near resistance levels has created a coiled spring effect, signaling potential for a breakout.Key Levels:
- Support:
- Immediate: $3,025 (recent swing low)
- Critical: $3,005 (breakdown threshold)
- Resistance:
- Immediate: $3,060
- Major: $3,095 (key psychological barrier)
- Long-Term Target: A sustained breakout above $3,095 could extend gains toward $3,140–$3,160, aligning with recent bullish momentum.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Look for dips toward $3,025–$3,030, using the 20-period SMA or bullish RSI divergence as confirmation. Example entry criteria include a rejection candle at support with a bullish MACD crossover.
- Breakout Entry: A decisive close above $3,060 with increasing volume validates a trend continuation. Confirm with a bullish RSI (above 55) and upward-sloping SMAs.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $3,005 to protect against breakout failure. For pullback entries, set SL at $3,015–$3,020 to account for minor retracements.
- Take Profit (TP): Target phased exits at $3,075 (first partial exit) and $3,095 (final TP), aligning with resistance clusters.
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for overbought signals above 70 to anticipate corrections. A bullish trend line in the RSI (on the 4H chart) supports sustained rallies.
- Moving Averages: The 20-period SMA ($2,968) acts as dynamic support, while the 50-period SMA ($2,940) reinforces the medium-term uptrend.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Tariff uncertainty, USD weakness, and safe-haven demand underpin gold’s resilience. A close above $3,060 would strengthen bullish conviction.
- Volatility: Monitor scheduled economic data (e.g., Non-Farm Payrolls) and geopolitical developments, as these can amplify intraday swings.
Final Advice
- Execute entry orders during the European or US sessions when liquidity peaks.
- Reassess positions at $3,050. If resistance holds, consider tightening SLs.
- Protect capital by keeping TP/SL ratios ≥1:1.5.
Gold’s technical and fundamental backdrop remains favorable for aggressive traders, but discipline in SL placement is critical amid volatile markets.
