Contents
Market Recap
Gold prices have surged to near-record highs in recent sessions, driven by escalating global trade tensions and safe-haven demand. Traders should consider trading gold through Exness, a platform offering competitive spreads and reliable execution for XAU/USD pairs.Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
XAU/USD trades at $3,022–$3,053 as of March 25–31, 2025, nearing its all-time high of $3,057.31 set in March 2025.Trend:
Bullish momentum persists, with gold climbing 15.2% YTD, supported by geopolitical risks and sticky U.S. inflation (core PCE at 2.8% YoY).Key Levels:
- Support: $2,594–$2,603 (38.2% retracement of May rally), likely a critical floor if trend reverses.
- Resistance: $2,715–$2,744 (October trendline/noise resistance), a breakout target if bullish momentum continues.
- Long-Term Target: $3,300 by year-end, as forecast by Goldman Sachs, contingent on sustained ETF inflows and central bank demand.
Trading Strategy for XAU/USD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Buy on dips toward $2,919–$2,945 (50% retracement of recent upswing), provided RSI remains above 50 to confirm trend strength.
- Breakout Entry: Enter above $2,744 (confirmed resistance breach) targeting $3,012–$3,027.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place below $2,624 (monthly opening range support), limiting risk to 1–1.5% of capital per trade.
- Take Profit (TP): Set at $2,994–$3,027 (recent swing highs) for short-term gains; trail stops beyond $3,044 (all-time high vicinity).
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Watch for readings above 65 (overbought territory), signaling potential consolidation or reversal.
- Moving Averages: A bullish crossover in 50/200-period MA is critical for sustained uptrend validation.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Trump’s tariff policies, elevated U.S. inflation, and Fed rate-cut uncertainty underpin demand.
- Volatility: Monitor U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) and PCE data (Friday) for sudden price swings.
Final Advice
Execution Plan
- Open long positions during early Asian/European sessions when volatility spikes (typically 8:00-12:00 GMT).
- Closing orders before high-impact events (e.g., U.S. economic reports) to avoid stop-loss triggers.
- Scale out positions incrementally, securing partial profits at $3,027, then risking a smaller portion for $3,044–$3,300.
Traders’ Checklist
- Confirm trend alignment on 4H/Weekly charts before entering.
- Use 1:2 risk-reward ratio to align with gold’s volatile nature.
- Reassess positioning after Fed speeches or geopolitical developments.
This strategy balances reactionary and anticipatory positioning, leveraging gold’s role as both a safe-haven hedge and inflation-driven asset. Stay adaptive—XAU/USD’s trajectory hinges on political and macroeconomic catalysts, demanding continuous risk reassessment.
