[GOLD August 4, 2025]

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Market Recap

Gold prices have experienced significant volatility recently, influenced by a combination of economic data and geopolitical developments. As of August 4, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,360 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.1% from the previous session. This dip follows a substantial rally driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, which heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Source

For those interested in trading XAUUSD, it’s advisable to do so through a reputable platform like Exness, which offers a user-friendly interface and competitive spreads. You can access their services here: XAUUSD Trading

Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

Spot gold is currently trading at $3,360 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.1% from the previous session. Source

Trend:

The medium-term trend for gold remains bullish, with prices testing lower highs after a parabolic upswing. Recent analysis highlights an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD, which may continue exerting downward pressure on gold. Source

Key Levels:

• Support: $3,310–$3,320
• Resistance: $3,350–$3,366
• Long-Term Target: $3,500

Support:

The $3,310–$3,320 zone has acted as significant support, where buying interest has previously emerged, preventing further downside movement. Source

Resistance:

The $3,350–$3,366 zone serves as immediate resistance, with the $3,500 mark representing a longer-term target, potentially achievable if bullish momentum strengthens. Source

Long-Term Target:

A sustained break above $3,366 could pave the way for gold to test the $3,500 level, aligning with bullish forecasts from institutions like Citi, which raised its three-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce, expanding the expected trading range to $3,300–$3,600. Source

Trading Strategy for XAUUSD

Entry Points

• Pullback Entry: Consider entering long positions on a pullback to the $3,310–$3,320 zone, aligning with the 50-period moving average and the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Source
• Breakout Entry: A close above $3,366 with increased volume could signal a resumption of the uptrend. Confirm with bullish RSI divergence above 60. Source

Risk Management

• Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the recent swing low, around $3,245, to protect against unexpected market reversals. Source
• Take Profit (TP): Set the first take profit target at $3,366, the immediate resistance level, and consider a second target at $3,500, aligning with long-term bullish forecasts. Source

Key Indicators to Monitor

• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, indicating neutral market conditions. Watch for divergence during pullbacks to identify potential reversal points. Source
• Moving Averages: The 50-period moving average is at $3,310, providing dynamic support. A crossover above the 200-period moving average at $3,280 would confirm bullish momentum. Source

Rationale for Strategy

• Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand from U.S.-China trade uncertainty and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts remain in play. Source
• Volatility: Monitor Federal Reserve policy statements and geopolitical developments, as these often trigger sharp price swings. Source

Final Advice

Trading gold requires a nuanced approach, balancing technical analysis with an understanding of macroeconomic factors. Given the current market conditions, a cautious stance is advisable. Consider entering long positions on pullbacks to key support levels, with tight stop losses to manage risk. Breakout strategies above established resistance levels may offer additional opportunities, but ensure confirmation through volume and momentum indicators. Always stay informed about economic data releases and geopolitical events, as these can significantly impact gold prices. Utilize platforms like Exness for their comprehensive tools and resources to assist in your trading decisions. Source