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Market Recap
Gold prices have experienced notable fluctuations recently, influenced by escalating trade tensions and shifts in the U.S. dollar’s strength. On July 11, 2025, gold prices rose slightly following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs, including a 35% tariff on Canadian imports and planned blanket duties of 15% to 20% on other trade partners. This move, part of a wider escalation in trade tensions, also included a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and tariffs on Brazilian goods, with all measures set to take effect on August 1. Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, gains in gold were tempered by a stronger U.S. dollar, which recorded its best weekly performance since late February, making gold more expensive for international buyers. [source]
In response to these developments, HSBC raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, up from $3,015, citing persistent economic risks and high government debt. The bank anticipates a volatile trading range of $3,100 to $3,600 for the remainder of 2025, with year-end prices projected at $3,175 for 2025 and $3,025 for 2026. [source]
Given these dynamics, trading XAUUSD can be effectively managed through platforms like Exness, which offer comprehensive tools and resources for forex trading. For more information, visit their website.
Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
As of July 11, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,332.73 per ounce, with U.S. gold futures at $3,343.70. [source]
Trend:
The gold market is exhibiting a bullish trend, supported by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. However, this upward momentum is moderated by a strengthening U.S. dollar and robust U.S. economic indicators.
Key Levels:
- Support: $3,300 per ounce
- Resistance: $3,350 per ounce
Long-Term Target:
Analysts project a potential decline in gold prices below $3,000 per ounce by late 2025 or early 2026, driven by weakening investment demand and an improving global economic outlook. [source]
Trading Strategy for XAUUSD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Consider entering a long position if gold prices retrace to the $3,300 support level, with signs of stabilization and a reversal pattern.
- Breakout Entry: Enter a long position if gold prices break above the $3,350 resistance level, indicating strong bullish momentum.
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss below the $3,300 support level to limit potential losses in case of a downward reversal.
- Take Profit (TP): Set a take profit target at the $3,400 level, aligning with the next significant resistance point.
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: Monitor the Relative Strength Index to assess overbought or oversold conditions, aiding in timing entries and exits.
- Moving Averages: Use the 50-day and 200-day moving averages to identify the prevailing trend and potential reversal points.
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Ongoing trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, and economic risks continue to support gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
- Volatility: The market’s volatility presents opportunities for short-term gains, but also necessitates vigilant risk management.
Final Advice
Trading XAUUSD requires a nuanced approach, balancing the bullish drivers with the moderating effects of a strong U.S. dollar and positive economic indicators. Utilizing platforms like Exness can provide the necessary tools and resources to navigate this complex market. Always conduct thorough research and consider consulting with a financial advisor to tailor strategies to your individual risk tolerance and investment goals.
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