[GOLD July 13, 2025]

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Market Recap

Gold prices have experienced significant volatility recently, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic developments. As of July 13, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,331.85 per ounce, reflecting a 26.6% increase year-to-date. This surge is attributed to heightened global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Notably, HSBC has raised its average gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,215 per ounce, citing persistent economic risks and high government debt.

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Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

As of July 13, 2025, spot gold is trading at approximately $3,331.85 per ounce, reflecting a 26.6% increase year-to-date. Source

Trend:

The prevailing trend is bullish, with gold prices experiencing a significant rally due to heightened global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Source

Key Levels:

• Support: $3,245
• Resistance: $3,366
• Long-Term Target: $3,500

Support:

The $3,245 level has acted as a significant support, where buying interest has previously emerged, preventing further downside movement. Source

Resistance:

The $3,366 level serves as immediate resistance, with the $3,500 mark representing a longer-term target, potentially achievable if bullish momentum strengthens. Source

Long-Term Target:

A sustained break above $3,366 could pave the way for gold to test the $3,500 level, aligning with bullish forecasts from institutions like HSBC, which raised its average 2025 gold price forecast to $3,215 per ounce, citing geopolitical risks. Source

Trading Strategy for XAUUSD

Entry Points

• Pullback Entry: Consider entering long positions on a pullback to the $3,300–$3,320 zone, aligning with the 50-period moving average and the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Source
• Breakout Entry: A close above $3,372 with increased volume could signal a resumption of the uptrend. Confirm with bullish RSI divergence above 60. Source

Risk Management

• Stop Loss (SL): Place a stop loss at $3,250, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, to protect against potential downside risks. Source
• Take Profit (TP): Set partial take-profit levels at $3,400 and $3,450, near the next resistance zones, to secure profits as the price approaches these levels. Source

Key Indicators to Monitor

• RSI: Monitor the Relative Strength Index for overbought or oversold conditions. A reading below 50 may indicate oversold conditions, favoring long entries. Source
• Moving Averages: The 50-period moving average at $3,320 and the 200-period moving average at $3,000 are critical for trend confirmation. Source

Rationale for Strategy

• Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand from U.S.-China trade uncertainty and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts remain in play. Source
• Volatility: Monitor Federal Reserve policy statements and geopolitical developments, as these often trigger sharp price swings. Source

Final Advice

When trading XAUUSD, it’s crucial to stay informed about both technical indicators and fundamental factors. Given the current market conditions, consider entering long positions on pullbacks to key support levels, with a clear risk management plan in place. Always monitor key indicators like RSI and moving averages to confirm your trading decisions. Remember, while the potential for profit exists, it’s essential to trade responsibly and be prepared for market volatility.