[GOLD July 18, 2025]

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Market Recap

Gold prices have experienced notable fluctuations recently, influenced by a combination of economic data and geopolitical developments. As of July 18, 2025, gold is trading at approximately $3,339.20 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.5% over the past week. This downturn is primarily attributed to a strengthening U.S. dollar and robust U.S. economic indicators. Retail sales in June rose by 0.6%, surpassing expectations, and jobless claims fell to 221,000, indicating economic resilience. These factors have tempered expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, exerting downward pressure on gold prices. source

In contrast, other precious metals have shown strength. Platinum reached its highest level since August 2014, and palladium surged to its best level since August 2023, driven by increased demand and supply constraints. Silver also saw a modest increase, highlighting a shift in investor interest within the precious metals sector. source

For those interested in trading XAUUSD, platforms like Exness offer a user-friendly interface and competitive spreads, making it a suitable choice for both novice and experienced traders. You can explore their offerings here: XAUUSD Trading

Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

Gold is currently trading at $3,339.20 per ounce, reflecting a slight decline of 0.5% over the past week. source

Trend:

The medium-term trend for gold remains bearish, with prices testing lower highs after a parabolic upswing. Recent analysis highlights an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern in the USD, which may continue exerting downward pressure on gold. source

Key Levels:

• Support: $3,310–$3,320
• Resistance: $3,350–$3,366
• Long-Term Target: $3,500

Trading Strategy for XAUUSD

Entry Points

• Pullback Entry: Consider entering long positions on a pullback to the $3,310–$3,320 zone, aligning with the 50-period moving average and the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels. source
• Breakout Entry: A close above $3,366 with increased volume could signal a resumption of the uptrend. Confirm with bullish RSI divergence above 60. source

Risk Management

• Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the recent swing low, around $3,245, to protect against unexpected market reversals. source
• Take Profit (TP): Set the first take profit target at $3,366, the immediate resistance level, and consider a second target at $3,500, aligning with long-term bullish forecasts. source

Key Indicators to Monitor

• RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, indicating neutral market conditions. Watch for divergence during pullbacks to identify potential reversal points. source
• Moving Averages: The 50-period moving average is at $3,310, providing dynamic support. A crossover above the 200-period moving average at $3,280 would confirm bullish momentum. source

Rationale for Strategy

• Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand from U.S.-China trade uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations remain in play. However, USD strength and overbought RSI readings (above 70) suggest caution. source
• Volatility: Monitor Federal Reserve policy statements and geopolitical developments, as these often trigger sharp price swings. source

Final Advice

Trading gold requires a nuanced approach, balancing technical analysis with an understanding of macroeconomic factors. Given the current market conditions, a cautious stance is advisable. Consider entering long positions on pullbacks to key support levels, with tight stop losses to manage risk. Breakout strategies above established resistance levels may offer additional opportunities, but ensure confirmation through volume and momentum indicators. Always stay informed about economic data releases and geopolitical events, as these can significantly impact gold prices. Utilize platforms like Exness for their comprehensive tools and resources to assist in your trading decisions. source