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Market Recap
Gold prices have recently experienced fluctuations influenced by various economic developments. On July 28, 2025, gold prices modestly rebounded, rising by 0.2% to $3,342.62 per ounce. This uptick was primarily driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, which offset downward pressure from improved investor sentiment following a new U.S.-EU trade agreement. The trade deal, announced on July 27, imposes a 15% tariff on most EU goods—half the initially threatened rate—helping to avoid a wider transatlantic trade war. However, some issues, such as tariffs on spirits, remain unresolved. Source
The easing of trade tensions pressured gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, but the concurrent decline in the dollar index made gold more attractive to international buyers. Analysts expect limited volatility in gold in the near term, with attention turning to upcoming U.S. monetary policy and economic data. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates steady, with speculation fueled by a positive meeting between President Trump and Fed Chair Powell. Source
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Current Price Action and Trends
Price Level:
As of July 28, 2025, gold is trading at approximately $3,342.62 per ounce, reflecting a modest rebound from recent lows. Source
Trend:
The medium-term trend appears bullish, with prices recovering from recent dips and approaching key resistance levels. However, the market remains susceptible to rapid shifts due to ongoing economic and geopolitical factors. Source
Key Levels:
- Support: $3,300 (near April 16 close of $3,251.19)
- Resistance: $3,350 (psychological level)
- Long-Term Target: $3,400 (aligning with 2025 forecasts)
Support:
The $3,300 level serves as a strong support zone, with previous stabilization observed around this price point. Source
Resistance:
The $3,350 level acts as a psychological resistance, with the $3,400–$3,404 range representing the main barrier to further growth. Source
Long-Term Target:
A breakout above the $3,400–$3,404 resistance area could pave the way for gold to move towards $3,450, with the potential to reach $3,500–$3,550 under favorable external conditions. Source
Trading Strategy for XAUUSD
Entry Points
- Pullback Entry: Consider entering long positions on a pullback to the $3,300–$3,320 zone, aligning with the 50-period moving average and the 38.2%–50% Fibonacci retracement levels. Source
- Breakout Entry: Enter long if the price closes above $3,350, targeting $3,400. Source
Risk Management
- Stop Loss (SL): Place the stop loss below the recent swing low, around $3,245, to protect against unexpected market reversals. Source
- Take Profit (TP): Set the first take profit target at $3,366, the immediate resistance level, and consider a second target at $3,400, aligning with long-term bullish forecasts. Source
Key Indicators to Monitor
- RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 55, indicating neutral market conditions. Watch for divergence during pullbacks to identify potential reversal points. Source
- Moving Averages: The 50-period moving average is at $3,310, providing dynamic support. A crossover above the 200-period moving average at $3,280 would confirm bullish momentum. Source
Rationale for Strategy
- Bullish Drivers: Safe-haven demand from U.S.-China trade uncertainty and Fed rate cut expectations remain in play. Source
- Volatility: Monitor Federal Reserve policy statements and geopolitical news for volatility spikes. Source
Final Advice
Given the current market dynamics, a cautious approach is recommended. Prioritize breakouts above $3,366 with tight stop losses. If entering on pullbacks, ensure the price holds above $3,245. Exit 50% of positions at $3,366 and ride the remainder toward $3,400. Stay informed about Federal Reserve commentary and geopolitical developments, as these can trigger sharp price swings. Source
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