[GOLD July 29, 2025]

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Market Recap

Gold prices have recently experienced fluctuations, influenced by various global economic factors. As of July 29, 2025, gold is trading near a three-week low, hovering around $3,311.33 per ounce. This decline is attributed to easing concerns over a global trade war and a strengthening U.S. dollar, which have diminished gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Source

In recent trade talks, the U.S. and China have engaged in discussions aimed at extending a tariff truce, contributing to reduced geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the U.S. reached a framework trade deal with the European Union, imposing a reduced 15% tariff and averting further escalation. These developments have bolstered investor confidence in riskier assets, leading to a decline in gold prices. Source

The U.S. dollar index has also remained strong, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers and further pressuring prices downward. Market participants are now focusing on upcoming U.S. inflation data, employment numbers, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions, with expectations of interest rates remaining unchanged. A more dovish Fed stance, potentially influenced by weak data or political pressure, could favor gold in the long term. Source

Despite the short-term pressures, analysts suggest that gold’s long-term upside potential remains intact. A Reuters poll of 40 analysts and traders reveals robust optimism for gold prices, which are expected to stay above $3,000 per ounce due to heightened global trade tensions and rising fiscal debt, prompting a persistent flight to safe-haven assets. Source

For traders looking to capitalize on gold’s movements, platforms like Exness offer favorable conditions. Exness provides high leverage and tight spreads, making it an attractive choice for trading XAUUSD. To explore trading opportunities with Exness, visit their official website.

Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

As of July 29, 2025, gold is trading at approximately $3,311.33 per ounce. Source

Trend:

The prevailing trend is bearish, with gold prices declining due to reduced geopolitical tensions and a stronger U.S. dollar. Source

Key Levels:

Support:

• $3,300: A significant support level where buying interest has previously emerged.
• $3,280: A stronger support level that could act as a floor for prices.

Resistance:

• $3,345: A key resistance level that has been tested multiple times.
• $3,373: A higher resistance level indicating potential selling pressure.

Long-Term Target:

Analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for gold, with projections suggesting prices could reach $4,000 by the end of 2026, especially if U.S. fiscal issues worsen. Source

Trading Strategy for XAUUSD

Entry Points

Pullback Entry:

• Strategy: Enter a long position when gold prices pull back to the $3,300 support level, anticipating a rebound.
• Rationale: The $3,300 level has previously acted as a strong support, suggesting potential for upward movement.

Breakout Entry:

• Strategy: Enter a short position if gold prices break below the $3,280 support level, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
• Rationale: A break below this level could signal increased selling pressure and a potential decline toward the next support levels.

Risk Management

Stop Loss (SL):

• Pullback Entry: Place a stop loss just below the $3,280 support level to limit potential losses if the market moves against the position.
• Breakout Entry: Place a stop loss just above the $3,345 resistance level to protect against adverse price movements.

Take Profit (TP):

• Pullback Entry: Set a take profit target at the $3,345 resistance level, where selling pressure may emerge.
• Breakout Entry: Set a take profit target at the $3,373 resistance level, anticipating further downward movement.

Key Indicators to Monitor

RSI:

• Current Reading: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 65, indicating that gold is approaching overbought territory. Source
• Implication: An RSI above 70 suggests overbought conditions, potentially signaling a reversal or correction.

Moving Averages:

• EMA 50: $3,350
• EMA 100: $3,320
• EMA 200: $3,290
• EMA 400: $3,250
• Implication: The EMAs indicate a bullish trend, with shorter-term averages above longer-term ones, suggesting upward momentum. Source

Rationale for Strategy

Bullish Drivers:

• Central Bank Purchases: Central banks, particularly in China, have been increasing gold reserves, supporting demand. Source
• Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing trade negotiations and fiscal policies may influence gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Volatility:

• Market Conditions: Recent market volatility, influenced by trade talks and economic data, has impacted gold prices.
• Strategy Consideration: Traders should remain vigilant and adjust strategies based on evolving market conditions.

Final Advice

Trading gold (XAUUSD) requires a comprehensive understanding of both technical and fundamental factors. Utilizing platforms like Exness can provide favorable trading conditions, including high leverage and tight spreads. It’s crucial to stay informed about global economic developments, monitor key technical indicators, and implement robust risk management strategies. Always ensure that your trading decisions align with your risk tolerance and investment objectives.