[GOLD July 31, 2025]

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Market Recap

Gold prices have recently experienced notable fluctuations, influenced by a combination of economic indicators and geopolitical developments. On July 31, 2025, gold rebounded from a one-month low, closing at $3,295.37 per ounce, up 0.6% from the previous day’s low of $3,267.79. This resurgence was driven by renewed trade uncertainties following new U.S. tariff announcements, including levies on imports from Brazil, copper products, and a 15% tariff on South Korean goods, as well as a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting Friday. (reuters.com)

Despite these developments, expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut in September have diminished after the Federal Reserve held rates steady. Analysts have identified $3,250 as a critical support level for gold. Investors are also awaiting U.S. core PCE index data, projected to rise 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually, which could further influence gold prices. (reuters.com)

In the broader market context, global investors are adjusting their positions as bearish bets against the U.S. dollar and equities begin to collapse. Contrary to earlier expectations that President Donald Trump’s tariffs and fiscal policies would weaken the dollar and hurt U.S. markets, robust economic data and AI-driven stock surges have reversed these views. The dollar is set for its first monthly gain in 2025, while European and emerging markets—which had benefited from previous anti-dollar sentiment—are under pressure. (reuters.com)

Given these dynamics, trading XAUUSD on Exness can be advantageous due to the platform’s high leverage and tight spreads, which are beneficial for trading gold. (minereum.com)

Current Price Action and Trends

Price Level:

As of July 31, 2025, gold is trading at approximately $3,295.37 per ounce, recovering from a recent low of $3,267.79. (reuters.com)

Trend:

The short-term trend appears bullish, with gold rebounding from recent lows amid renewed trade uncertainties. However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic indicators.

Key Levels:

Support:

• $3,250: Identified as a critical support level by analysts. (reuters.com)
• $3,280: Recent low observed on July 29, 2025. (roboforex.com)

Resistance:

• $3,340: Projected target for July 31, 2025, according to RoboForex. (roboforex.com)
• $3,365: Swing high observed on July 22, 2025. (linkedin.com)

Long-Term Target:

Analysts have raised the median gold price forecast for 2025 to $3,220 per ounce, up from $3,065 three months earlier, with a 2026 projection of $3,400. (reuters.com)

Trading Strategy for XAUUSD

Entry Points

Pullback Entry:

Consider entering a long position if gold retraces to the $3,280 support level and shows signs of upward momentum, such as bullish candlestick patterns or a rebound from the support.

Breakout Entry:

Enter a long position if gold breaks above the $3,340 resistance level, indicating potential for further upward movement.

Risk Management

Stop Loss (SL):

Set a stop loss below the $3,250 support level to limit potential losses in case the market moves against your position.

Take Profit (TP):

Set a take profit target near the $3,365 resistance level, aligning with recent swing highs.

Key Indicators to Monitor

RSI:

Monitor the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for overbought or oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 may indicate overbought conditions, while below 30 may indicate oversold conditions.

Moving Averages:

Observe the 50-day and 200-day moving averages for trend direction. A crossover of the 50-day moving average above the 200-day moving average may signal a bullish trend.

Rationale for Strategy

Bullish Drivers:

• Renewed trade uncertainties due to new U.S. tariffs. (reuters.com)
• Diminished expectations for a U.S. interest rate cut in September. (reuters.com)
• Analysts’ projections of gold prices remaining above $3,000 per ounce. (reuters.com)

Volatility:

Be prepared for potential volatility due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic data releases, which can impact gold prices.

Final Advice

Trading gold requires careful analysis and risk management. Utilize Exness’s platform features, such as high leverage and tight spreads, to optimize your trading strategy. Always stay updated with the latest market news and economic indicators to make informed decisions. Remember to adjust your strategy based on real-time market conditions and your individual risk tolerance.